We derive a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, collectively examining variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap, of which all, except the last, are found to matter....

We consider an economy where the oil price, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to a variety of fundamental shocks. We estimate the effects of different structural shocks using robust sign restrictions suggested by theory using US data for the 1973-2007...

We develop a five-region version (Canada, a group of oil exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks...

In this paper I estimate and test a model of the effects of competitiveness, oil prices and government expenditure on output fluctuations in the United Kingdom. The model is based on the distinction between traded and non-traded goods, the latter being produced in both the private and public...

While there is a strong presumption in the financial press that oil prices drive the stock market, the empirical evidence on the impact of oil price shocks on stock prices has been mixed. This paper shows that the response of aggregate stock returns may differ greatly depending on whether the...

This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries’ external balance, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975–2004. We...

The purpose of this paper is to measure the impact of the 1979 oil price "hike" on a selected group of developing countries. The model used for this exercise is an adaptation of a straightforward income-determination model in which domestic oil revenues are treated as a "tax" revenue from oil...

We estimate an aggregate econometric model of the industrial economies using annual data drawn from the postwar period. The model includes equations for GDP, inflation, interest rates and non-oil commodity prices. GDP and inflation reflect the evolution of aggregate supply and demand while...

The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large...

In this paper we provide a quantitative examination of initiatives for post-Uruguay Round liberalization in ‘traditional’ GATT/WTO market access areas, as a counterpoint to the recent policy literature on newer issues such as the environment, competition policy, and labour standards. We...