Recent research has shown that recursive real-time VAR forecasts of the real price of oil tend to be more accurate than forecasts based on oil futures prices of the type commonly employed by central banks worldwide. Such monthly forecasts, however, differ in several important dimensions from the...

The increasing literature on the interactions between liberalization-integration of product markets and labour market reforms is often highly speculative and draws on a rather weak empirical basis. Cross-country indicators of regulatory frameworks are often lacking, making it difficult to...

We develop a dynamic model of a market with two specialized sides: traders posting quotes ("market makers") and traders hitting quotes ("market takers"). Traders monitor the market to seize profit opportunities, generating high frequency liquidity cycles. Monitoring decisions by market-makers...

We study the effect of frequent trading opportunities and categorization on pricing of a risky asset. Frequent opportunities to trade can lead to large distortions in prices if some agents forecast future prices using a simplified model of the world that fails to distinguish between some states....

This paper provides insights into the relationship between the substantial ageing of the European labour force, large migration movements, and individual labour mobility. First, qualitative predictions are derived using the theory of production with multiple inputs. Second, quantitative...

This paper argues that the theoretical foundations for the gravity equation are general, while the empirical performance of the gravity equation is specific to the type of goods examined. Most existing theory for the gravity equation depends on the assumption of differentiated goods. We show...

Development accounting exercises based on an aggregate production function find technology is biased in favour of a country's abundant production factors. We provide an explanation to this finding based on the Heckscher-Ohlin model. Countries trade and specialize in the industries that use...

We construct and numerically solve a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model in which the initial distribution of production factors in the world makes worldwide factor price equalization impossible, and leads countries to group in two diversification cones. We study the dynamics of income per capita and...

In Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Nos. 164 and 165 I presented econometric models of the industrialized countries (North) and the oil-importing developing countries (South). This paper links the two models so that the economic interdependence between North and South can be...

This paper investigates the consequences of the completion of the internal market in the EC using a computable general equilibrium model of trade under imperfect competition. The focus of the paper is the welfare consequences of reducing trade barriers and the changes in production and trade...