Showing 1 - 10 of 179
combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005034764
This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661541
exchange can be usefully exploited in forecasting future spot exchange rates. I use signal-extraction techniques, based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661737
index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in forecasting. We considered two models which allow forecasting based … univariate methods for forecasting inflation at one, three, six, and twelve months and industrial production at one and three … months. We find that financial variables do help forecasting inflation, but do not help forecasting industrial production. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789173
This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854481
for forecasting GDP growth at short-term horizons in the euro area. We discuss three sets of empirical results. First we … forecast revisions. Third we design a pseudo out of sample forecasting exercise and examine point and density forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083444
We provide direct estimates of how agents trade off immediate costs and uncertain future benefits that occur in the very long run, 100 or more years away. We exploit a unique feature of housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083367
This paper introduces three methodological advances to study the optimal design of static and dynamic markets. First, we apply a mechanism design approach to characterize all incentive-compatible market equilibria. Second, we conduct a normative analysis, i.e. we evaluate alternative competition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530381
We first estimate a dynamic game for the global automobile industry and then compute a Markov Perfect equilibrium to study the equilibrium relationship between market structure and innovation. The key state variable in the model is the efficiency level of each firm and the market structure is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084428
Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272708