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Conconi, Paola; DeRemer, David; Kirchsteiger, Georg; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

This paper shows that electoral incentives affect the occurrence of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995-2012 period, we show that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election date. Moreover, disputes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276379

Higher Vote Thresholds for Incumbents, Effort and Selection

Gersbach, Hans - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

simple model we show that the power of elections as a selection and incentive device can be improved by requiring higher vote …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025512

The Political Cost of Reforms

Bonfiglioli, Alessandra; Gancia, Gino A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is … unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009644031

Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic …-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124061

Reading the Smile: The Message Conveyed by Methods which Infer Risk Neutral Densities

Jondeau, Eric; Rockinger, Michael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998

elections). The non-structural model provides a good fit to options prices but is unable to provide as much information about …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124117

Businessman Candidates: Special-Interest Politics in Weakly Institutionalized Environments

Gehlbach, Scott; Sonin, Konstantin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

our arguments through discussion of gubernatorial elections in postcommunist Russia, where businessmen frequently run for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136612

Wage Inflation, Electoral Uncertainty and the Exchange Rate Regime: Theory and UK Evidence

Alogoskoufis, George; Lockwood, Ben; Philippopoulos, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992

to the failure of political parties to precommit to price stability, in the light of unemployment persistence. Elections …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067418

Elections, Contracts and Markets

Gersbach, Hans; Müller, Markus - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

contracts, and democratic elections. An information market is used to predict the long-term performance of a policy, while …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067506

Political Cycles in OECD Economies

Alesina, Alberto F; Roubini, Nouriel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990

by the timing of elections and changes of government. The sample includes the last three decades in 18 OECD economies. We … cycle' model, with endogenous timing of elections; (b) inflation tends to increase immediately after elections, perhaps as a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067672

Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets

Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498073