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Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States
Smets, Frank; Tsatsaronis, Kostas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United … spread in that country. However, the main reason for the stronger leading indicator property in Germany is the positive … at lag four in Germany and almost nothing in the United States. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123911
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The Price of EMU Revisited
Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Minford, Patrick; Rastogi, Anupam - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992
Using the recent EC Commission report `One Market, One Money' as a point of reference, we consider the merits of a single currency in Europe. The main benefit is the reduction in transaction costs, which the report estimates at 0.4% of European Community (EC) GDP (but much less in countries with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114257
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The Exchange Rate - A Shock-Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of Four Open Economies
Artis, Michael J; Ehrmann, Michael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
The paper provides SVAR estimates for four open economies: the UK, Canada, Sweden and Denmark, making explicit a … another: monetary union appears easy to recommend for Sweden and Denmark, much less so for Canada and the UK. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789208
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The Roles of Monetary Policy in the Process of Economic Reform in Eastern Europe
Bofinger, Peter - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990
The first part of the paper analyzes the inflationary risks associated with price liberalization, the welfare costs of inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the low credibility of stabilization policies and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123602
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Central Bank Communication and Output Stabilization
Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Hoeberichts, Marco; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
Some central banks have a reputation for being secretive. A justification for this behaviour that we find in the literature is that being transparent about operations and beliefs hinders the central bank in achieving the best outcome. In other words, a central bank needs flexibility and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124006
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Decentralised Policies and Efficient Trade-Offs: An Essay on the Costs of Uncoordinated Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Petit, Maria Luisa - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1988
cooperation can result in a change in the position of the trade-off curve, or a reversal in the slope of this trade-off, or even … cooperation, and also impose a policy conflict which would not otherwise be present. Moreover the range of policy choices open to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281276
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Wage Structure and Public Sector Employment: Sweden versus the United States 1970-2002
Domeij, David; Ljungqvist, Lars - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
private sector employment. Our analysis suggests that the dramatic decline of the skill premium in Sweden is the result of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661889
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Price Effects of Sovereign Debt Auctions in the Euro-zone: The Role of the Crisis
Beetsma, Roel; de Jong, Frank; Giuliodori, Massimo; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
Exploring the period since the inception of the euro, we show that secondary-market yields on Italian public debt increase in anticipation of auctions of new issues and decrease after the auction, while no or a smaller such effect is present for German public debt. However, these yield movements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083630
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Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance
Bean, Charles R - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1987
In the first part of this paper I use a small macroeconomic model to examine the causes of the appreciation of sterling during 1979-81. Oil takes about half of the blame. Contractionary monetary policies alone do not seem sufficient to explain the rest, but when coupled with adverse supply-side...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666768
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The Costs/Benefits of a Common Monetary Policy in France and Germany and Possible Lessons for Monetary Union
Melitz, Jacques; Weber, Axel A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
In order to study the costs/benefits of a monetary union between Germany and France, we attempt to go beyond a mere …, Germany would lose from any French participation in the setting of domestic monetary policy. By contrast, however, France …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123945