. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly …We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the … basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy …

copious corruption not only decreases incumbent support in local elections in Mexico, but also decreases voter turnout …

emerges with nontrivial voting costs and modest altruism. The model can explain higher turnout in close elections as well as … candidates will lose votes to more popular candidates, a phenomenon often called strategic voting. For other parameters, the …

year preceding their re-election date. Moreover, disputes filed by the U.S. tend to target industries that are important to … swing states in the presidential election. To explain these regularities, we develop a theoretical model in which an … during the re-election campaign provides an advantage over the challenger, who cannot commit to file the dispute if elected …

The election mechanism has difficulties in selecting the most able candidates and deselecting less able ones. In a … simple model we show that the power of elections as a selection and incentive device can be improved by requiring higher vote …

voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is … unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other …

Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the … problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic … indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high …