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We examine strategic information transmission in a controlled laboratory experiment of a cheap talk game with one … theoretical predictions that we observe tend to disappear with experience, and learning is faster precisely in the games where …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784698
instrument or the size of the average treatment effect. With experiments, violation is more likely if the treatment and control …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792073
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791794
We present a decision theoretic framework with agents that are learning about the behavior of market determined … about equilibrium prices, so that learning about price behavior, as in Adam, Marcet and Nicolini (2008), is fully consistent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577809
We analyze a long-term contracting problem involving common uncertainty about a parameter capturing the productivity of the relationship, and featuring a hidden action for the agent. We develop an approach that works for any utility function when the parameter and noise are normally distributed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784751
I develop a model of (individually rational) collective reality denial in groups, organizations and markets. Whether participants' tendencies toward wishful thinking reinforce or dampen each other is shown to hinge on a simple and novel mechanism. When an agent can expect to benefit from other's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666620
We study the extent to which self-referential adaptive learning can explain stylized asset pricing facts in a general … production economy and a Lucas type endowment economy. We find that recursive least squares learning has almost no effects on … gain learning may contribute towards explaining the stock price and return volatility as well as the predictability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789201
Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the … equilibria. Further features of learning, such as discounting of older data, use of misspecified models, or heterogeneous choice … by agents between competing models, generate novel learning dynamics. Empirical applications are reviewed and the roles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003380
migrants with a Turkish origin or Central and Eastern European (including Russian) background. Job search theory is used to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861905
We study a model where some investors (“hedgers”) are bad at information processing, while others (“speculators”) have superior information-processing ability and trade purely to exploit it. The disclosure of financial information induces a trade externality: if speculators refrain from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083365