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Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know … that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures prices over … the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656266
on the role of transaction costs for financial price volatility. For stock prices above French francs (FF) 500, the … volatility metric, we calculate 47,213 hourly volatility measures for all CAC40 stocks in the price range from FF 400 to FF 600 … and measure the volatility impact of the transaction cost increase at FF 500. We find that the median hourly range …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114161
We develop a framework for studying the choice of exchange rate regime in an open economy where the local currency is vulnerable to speculative attacks. The framework makes it possible to study, for the first time, the strategic interaction between the ex ante choice of regime and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661456
supply shocks that explain most of the volatility in real commodity prices. Next we quantify their dynamic effects on a wide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084371
We provide evidence that fiscal policy in resource-rich countries is strongly procyclical. The empirical analysis reveals that on average real government consumption in these countries tends to significantly rise (fall) in good (bad) times. To control for endogeneity we use an instrumental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084376
add significantly to the dynamics implied by learning and substantially enhance the volatility of commodity prices. In our … substantial volatility in commodity prices despite the fact the model is subject only to i.i.d shocks. The shifting SCE … terms of the Hotelling model, a shifting SCE and variable escape dynamics introduces greater volatility at low frequencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004973966
Are civil wars partly caused by low economic growth? And do democratic institutions attenuate the impact of low growth on the likelihood of civil war? Our approach to answering these questions exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on income growth in Sub-Saharan...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789158
The persistently high rate of unemployment has probably been Western Europe's most important economic problem of the 1970s and 1980s. Average unemployment rose relentlessly between the early seventies and the mid-eighties, in contrast to the United States, where unemployment has displayed a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791195
This paper examines and compares the effectiveness of hedging and buffer-stock strategies for stabilizing the revenues of individual producers who face different supply conditions in a market with uncertainty about prices and output. The results are obtained in a model-free framework, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791351
The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple model which illuminates the interdependence between primary commodity prices and the rest of the economy. We study the role of commodity prices in a disinflation program, the role of commodity prices in determining whether or not a fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791762