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In this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure but let the data select it. To do so, we model the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084009
This paper adds a highly-leveraged financial sector to the Ramsey model of economic growth and shows that this causes the economy to behave in a highly volatile manner: doing this strongly augments the macroeconomic effects of aggregate productivity shocks. Our model is built on the financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322500
Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent effects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322501
volatility of revenues, have failed to save a sufficiently high proportion of their resource revenues and failed to make high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385762
-root process. Hyperbolic and quasi-hyperbolic discount factors can significantly increase the volatility of aggregate wealth and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662071
primarily from convergence in the volatility of state output growth, rather than in its average. The realized industry shares of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662195
volatility into these four sources, quantify their contribution to aggregate volatility, and study how they relate to the stage …, and slowly increases at later stages of development. Third, the volatility of country- specific macroeconomic shocks falls … with the level of development. We argue that many theories linking volatility and development are not consistent with these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662216
This paper studies three different measures of monthly stock market volatility: the time-series volatility of daily … market returns within the month; the cross-sectional volatility or ‘dispersion’ of daily returns on industry portfolios …, within the month. Over the period 1962–95 there has been a noticeable increase in firm-level volatility relative to market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662245
include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In relative terms, the conditional volatility of E15 growth has declined more … since 1980 than the well-documented decline for the US. The propagation of shocks has also changed, with the volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666509
This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666589