model forecast should become the benchmark for forecasting horse races. We compare the real-time forecasting accuracy of the … forecasting models is efficient. Our second finding is that there is no single best forecasting method. For example, typically … simple AR models are most accurate at short horizons and DSGE models are most accurate at long horizons when forecasting …

. Second, real growth projections by the official Dutch forecasting agency are unbiased. This contrasts with the experience of …

clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one …

output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation …

. However, estimated real-time models considerably improve out-ofsample forecasting performance, provide more accurate ‘nowcasts …