Many countries have failed to use natural resource wealth to promote growth and development. They have been damaged by volatility of revenues, have failed to save a sufficiently high proportion of their resource revenues and failed to make high return investments to support diversification of...

We use variation in oil output among Brazilian municipalities to investigate the effects of resource windfalls. We find muted effects of oil through market channels: offshore oil has no effect on municipal non-oil GDP or its composition, while onshore oil has only modest effects on non-oil GDP...

In Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper Nos. 164 and 165 I presented econometric models of the industrialized countries (North) and the oil-importing developing countries (South). This paper links the two models so that the economic interdependence between North and South can be...

This paper presents a compact derivation of the determinants of changes in the equilibrium real exchange rate (the price index of non-traded goods relative to traded goods) in a small open economy with any number of goods and factors. It is shown that the change in the real exchange rate equals...

This paper analyzes the impact of terms of trade and risk-premium shocks on a small open economy in an intertemporal, Dutch disease model, with international capital mobility. It is shown that when the economy experiences a permanent improvement in the terms of trade, the Dutch disease effect...

The response of an economy to a windfall of foreign exchange (be it aid or natural resource revenues) is often constrained by absorptive capacity. We provide a micro-founded analysis of absorption constraints, based on the idea that expanding the economy’s capital stock (in aggregate or...

Foreign exchange windfalls such as those from natural resource revenues change non-resource exports, imports, and the capital account. We study the balance between these responses and, using data on 41 resource exporters for 1970-2006, show that the response to a dollar of resource revenue is,...

We introduce a new `supply-push' instrument for foreign aid, to be used together with an instrumental variable estimator that filters out unobserved common factors. We use this instrument to study the effects of aid on macroeconomic ratios, and especially the ratios of consumption, investment,...

This paper diagnoses the symptoms of the Dutch disease in a two-sector stochastic endogenous growth model. A productive, low skill-intensive primary sector causes the currency to appreciate in real terms, thus hampering the development of a high skill-intensive secondary sector and thereby...

This paper presents a dynamic model that gives an account of some of the forms that the Dutch Disease can take through both product and labour markets. These involve an effect of primary sector output - through real wages and the level and volatility of real-exchange rates - on secondary sector...