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We show that in weakly identified models (1) the posterior mode will not be a consistent estimator of the true parameter vector, (2) the posterior distribution will not be Gaussian even asymptotically, and (3) Bayesian credible sets and frequentist confidence sets will not coincide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528534
Using indirect inference based on a VAR we confront US data from 1972 to 2007 with a standard New Keynesian model in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692309
moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the … comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in two recent papers. We conclude that Indirect Inference is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496453
We evaluate the Smets-Wouters model of the US using indirect inference with a VAR representation of the main US data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496457
We examine a two country model of the EU and the US. Each has a small sector of the labour and product markets in which there is wage/price rigidity, but otherwise enjoys flexible wages and prices with a one quarter information lag. Using a VAR to represent the data, we find the model as a whole...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004973965
often not provided. If confidence intervals are given they are often based on bootstrap methods with poor theoretical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498104
model is tested by the method of indirect inference, bootstrapping the errors to generate 95% confidence limits for a VECM …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784696
its asymptotic distribution, and we show how this distribution can be approximated by bootstrap methods. Our methods of … inference remain asymptotically valid when the order condition is satisfied, regardless of whether the usual rank condition for … to ensure the asymptotic validity of Bayesian methods of inference. A simulation study suggests that the frequentist and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145457
Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of indirect inference tests of DSGE models in small samples …, using various models in widespread use. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio … power of the indirect inference test is by far the greater, necessitating re-estimation to ensure that the model is tested …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165662
We extend the method of indirect inference testing to data that is not filtered and so may be non-stationary. We apply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083255