-term inflation is derived from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing developed by …-type price-setting as a special case. It describes current inflation as a function of lagged inflation, expected future inflation … find that current inflation depends positively on its own lagged values giving rise to intrinsic persistence as a source of …

This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values (‘inertia’), demand shocks proxied …

model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the implied long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Our results …

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking … measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap …. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting …

inflation and a permanent reduction in the level of unemployment. In short, we derive a microfounded long-run downward …

shifts in the parameters of wage equations when the process generating price inflation changes. The two major shifts that we …

examining the relationship between inflation and unemployment, which sheds light on these developments. The theoretical section … similar inflation behaviour, in that inflation depends more closely on the capacity utilization rate than on the unemployment … high unemployment does not put downward pressure on the inflation rate. During the 1970s and 1980s in Germany, there …

predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. … macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate …

wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we … applied to forecasting US real output growth and inflation, the proposed method tends to improve upon conventional methods. …While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left …

This Paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 …