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Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility

Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

This paper develops a method for producing current-quarter forecasts of GDP growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084707

Turning Point Prediction for the UK using CSO Leading Indicators

Artis, Michael J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993

limited; prediction based upon this series is typically outperformed by naive, non-indicator methods. The information content …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504620

Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction

van der Ploeg, Frederick - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

to new uncertain observations that are less important for welfare and introduces a bias in prediction. Prudent … less strongly to new measurements of the output gap. Prudence attenuates this policy reaction and biases the prediction of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114367