Showing 1 - 10 of 231
This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854481
paper, we compare their performance in a relevant case for policy making, i.e., nowcasting and forecasting quarterly GDP …This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification … exponential lag polynomials for the coefficients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and therefore can suffer from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528546
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the presence of model uncertainty with … forecasting quarterly German GDP, a key macroeconomic indicator for the largest country in the euro area, with a large set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123534
. Our empirical findings show that the factor estimation methods don't differ much with respect to nowcasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124208
This paper introduces regime switching parameters in the Mixed-Frequency VAR model. We first discuss estimation and … inference for Markov-switching Mixed-Frequency VAR (MSMF-VAR) models. Next, we assess the finite sample performance of the … technique in Monte-Carlo experiments. Finally, the MSMF-VAR model is applied to predict GDP growth and business cycle turning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083823
nowcasting Euro area and US GDP using monthly indicators. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084496
-1999. Three popular methods of estimating uncertainty from survey data are analysed in the context of models for forecasting and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789160
Several papers that make forecasts about the long-term impact of the current financial crisis rely on models in which there is only one type of financial crisis. These models tend to predict that the current crisis will have long lasting negative effects on economic growth. This paper points out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008477182
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347
This paper develops a method for producing current-quarter forecasts of GDP growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084707