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How Persistently do Firms Innovate?
Geroski, Paul A; Samiei, Hossein; Van Reenen, John - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
This paper examines the innovative history of a number of UK firms using two large databases, looking for evidence consistent with the view that firms who innovate typically do so persistently. The first sample contains 3,304 firms who registered at least one patent in the United States during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136678
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The Supermodular Stochastic Ordering
Meyer, Margaret A; Strulovici, Bruno - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
In many economic applications involving comparisons of multivariate distributions, supermodularity of an objective function is a natural property for capturing a preference for greater interdependence. One multivariate distribution dominates another according to the `supermodular stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083601
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Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach
Delatte, Anne-Laure; Lopez, Claude - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
In this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity … futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure … but let the data select it. To do so, we model the dependence between commodity (metal, agriculture and energy) and stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084009
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What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?
Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Based on a two-country, two-period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil, we show that there is no theoretical support for the common view that oil futures prices are good predictors of the spot price in the mean-squared error sense; yet under certain conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792183
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The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks
Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the U.S. and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504581
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Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?
Lei, Yu-Hsiang; Michaels, Guy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009351523
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The Long-Term Consequences of Regional Specialization
Michaels, Guy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
What are the consequences of resource-based regional specialization, when it persists over a long period of time? While much of the literature argues that specialization is beneficial, recent work suggests it may be costly in the long run, due to economic or political reasons. I examine this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123671
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Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors
Pástor, Luboš; Stambaugh, Robert F. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
The standard regression approach to modeling return predictability seems too restrictive in one way but too lax in another. A predictive regression models expected returns as an exact linear function of a given set of predictors but does not exploit the likely economic property that innovations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124082
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Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation
Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016247
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Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759