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How Persistently do Firms Innovate?
Geroski, Paul A; Samiei, Hossein; Van Reenen, John - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
This paper examines the innovative history of a number of UK firms using two large databases, looking for evidence consistent with the view that firms who innovate typically do so persistently. The first sample contains 3,304 firms who registered at least one patent in the United States during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136678
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The Supermodular Stochastic Ordering
Meyer, Margaret A; Strulovici, Bruno - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
In many economic applications involving comparisons of multivariate distributions, supermodularity of an objective function is a natural property for capturing a preference for greater interdependence. One multivariate distribution dominates another according to the `supermodular stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083601
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Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach
Delatte, Anne-Laure; Lopez, Claude - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
In this paper, we propose to identify the dependence structure existing between the returns of equity and commodity … futures and its evolution through the past 20 years. The key point is that we do not do not impose the dependence structure … but let the data select it. To do so, we model the dependence between commodity (metal, agriculture and energy) and stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084009
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Evaluating the law of one price using micro panel data
Gobillon, Laurent; Guillotreau, Patrice; Wolff, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
This paper investigates spatial variations in product prices using an exhaustive micro dataset on fish transactions. The data record all transactions between vessels and wholesalers that occur on local fish markets in France during the year 2007. Spatial disparities in fish prices are sizable,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083488
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Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors
Pástor, Luboš; Stambaugh, Robert F. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
The standard regression approach to modeling return predictability seems too restrictive in one way but too lax in another. A predictive regression models expected returns as an exact linear function of a given set of predictors but does not exploit the likely economic property that innovations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124082
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The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks
Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the U.S. and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504581
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What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?
Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Based on a two-country, two-period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil, we show that there is no theoretical support for the common view that oil futures prices are good predictors of the spot price in the mean-squared error sense; yet under certain conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792183
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The Long-Term Consequences of Regional Specialization
Michaels, Guy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
What are the consequences of resource-based regional specialization, when it persists over a long period of time? While much of the literature argues that specialization is beneficial, recent work suggests it may be costly in the long run, due to economic or political reasons. I examine this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123671
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Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?
Lei, Yu-Hsiang; Michaels, Guy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009351523
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Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore a range of new forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145393