very effective in forecasting; d. within no-arbitrage models, assuming time-varying risk price is more favourable than … assuming constant risk price for medium horizon-maturity forecast when yield factors dominate the information set, and for …

estimation for DSGE models approximated up to third-order and provides the foundation for indirect inference and SMM when …

inflation as predictors. We provide a possible structural interpretation of these results by allowing for time-varying risk … policy on output in an intertemporal Euler equation. We show that including a short-term interest rate and inflation in the … and inflation are difficult to interpret using a standard macroeconomic framework. A decomposition of the yield spread …

response is central bank private information about the state of the economy or about its own target for inflation. …

disentangle the effects, we study the predictability of all variables in a simple model of monetary policy: inflation, the output …

entirely explained by U.S. shocks and by the systematic response of U.S. and European variables (inflation, short term rates …

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory … incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights. …