. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a … disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs … persist for some time. Thus, belief dynamics are a source of apparent excess volatility relative to a rational expectations …

wealth and housing stock values. I look at the role of adaptive expectations about the rate of return on housing and find …

We study the causal effect of school curricula on students' stated beliefs and attitudes. We exploit a major textbook … reform in China that was rolled out between 2004 and 2010 with the explicit intention of shaping youths' ideology. To measure … participation and democracy in China, increased trust in government officials, and a more skeptical view of free markets. …