reconcile the conflicting primal and dual estimates of productivity growth over the period. …

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets … in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil …

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … existing evidence focuses on statistical measures of forecast accuracy, we also evaluate the performance of the alternative …

the link between the news in consecutive data releases and the resulting forecast revisions for the target variable. We …

latter's specification in differences. In this paper we examine the forecasting performance of the FECM by means of an … generally offers a higher forecasting precision and in general marks a very useful step forward for forecasting with large …

predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. …

-type-shock" models to correctly forecast the recovery from past economic downturns. It is shown that these models often overestimate the …

We defend the forecasting performance of the FOMC from the recent criticism of Christina and David Romer. Our argument …

The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we … propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance for US time series with the … forecast, and for key variables such as industrial production growth, inflation, and the federal funds rate. The robustness of …