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between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the Gilboa-Schmeidler maxmin with multiple priors framework to lenders …, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood … include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009144737
There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) estimated by Cerra and Saxena (2008) suggest that the effects of earlier crises were long-lasting. We show that standard estimates of IRFs are highly sensitive to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530359
This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the … use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio … management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067642
framework, based on the explicit consideration of model uncertainty under rich parameterizations for the predictive models. We … propose a novel methodology to deal with model uncertainty based on ‘thick’ modelling, i.e. considering a multiplicity of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661774
Can banks maintain their advantage as liquidity providers when they are heavily exposed to a financial crisis? The standard argument - that banks can - hinges on deposit inflows that are seeking a safe haven and provide banks with a natural hedge to fund drawn credit lines and other commitments....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009399713
We develop a model of financially constrained arbitrage, and use it to study the dynamics of arbitrage capital, liquidity, and asset prices. Arbitrageurs exploit price discrepancies between assets traded in segmented markets, and in doing so provide liquidity to investors. A collateral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011184076
their risk assessments and outcomes to those from a simple methodology that relies on publicly available market data and … market data; (iii) This discrepancy arises due to the reliance on regulatory risk weights in determining required levels of … capital once stress-test losses are taken into account. In particular, the continued reliance on regulatory risk weights in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083469
their risk assessments and outcomes to those from a simple methodology that relies on publicly available market data and …) This discrepancy arises due to the reliance on regulatory risk weights in determining required levels of capital once … stress-test losses are taken into account. In particular, the continued reliance on regulatory risk weights in stress tests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083787
. We compute the equilibrium in closed form when arbitrageurs' utility over consumption is logarithmic or risk-neutral with … expected returns are hump-shaped. Liquidity is a priced risk factor: assets that suffer the most when liquidity decreases, e …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084683
There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083435