Evidence from structural VARs suggests that the unemployment rate significantly increases following increases in government expenditures in many OECD countries. Results hold for a variety of specifications and identification schemes. Fiscal expansions also tend to increase the participation...

We identify US defense news shocks as shocks that best explain future movements in defense spending over a five-year horizon and are orthogonal to current defense spending. Our identified shocks are strongly correlated with the Ramey (2011) news shocks, but explain a larger share of...

Barack Obama’s victory in the 2009 presidential elections in the United States is widely credited to his personal charisma and his extraordinary rhetorical powers, as revealed throughout the campaign. President Obama was inaugurated in the midst of the worst economic crisis in the country,...

We study a model where the aggregate trading of currency speculators reveals new information to the central bank and affects its policy decision. We show that the learning process gives rise to coordination motives among speculators leading to large currency attacks and introducing...

We study a model where a capital provider learns from the price of a firm’s security in deciding how much capital to provide for new investment. This feedback effect from the financial market to the investment decision gives rise to trading frenzies, where speculators all wish to trade like...

In the last century most countries have experienced both an increase in pension spending and a decline in fertility. We argue that the interplay of pension generosity and development of capital markets is crucial to understand fertility decisions. Since children have traditionally represented...

This paper reviews the first evidence on the impact of European Monetary Union on European capital markets, one year after the launch of the single currency. Our assessment of this evidence is very favourable. On almost all counts EMU has either already drastically changed the European financial...

In the last two decades the European financial markets have become more market-oriented. We analyse the economic and political forces that have triggered these changes as well as their likely welfare implications. We also try to assess whether this trend will continue. Based on our analysis, we...

This paper studies the effects of prohibiting individuals from holding foreign assets, and of allowing firms to trade in foreign assets only up to what is needed to finance export and import activities. Although firms can perform arbitrage between domestic and foreign financial markets, this...