federal regulation. Several studies have measured the deadweight loss from the price ceilings that were imposed during this …

Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price … oil supply conditions. Such scenario analysis is of central importance for end-users of oil price forecasts interested in … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

-adjusted price of oil must be attributed to speculative demand for oil stocks at each point in time. We develop statistical tools … inventory proxies yield similar results. While there is evidence of speculative demand raising the price in mid-2008 by between … cannot be expected to lower the real price of oil in the physical market. We also provide evidence that the Libyan crisis in …

A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but … determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This … existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead …

The U.S. Energy Information Administration regularly publishes short-term forecasts of the price of crude oil … alternative econometric oil price forecasting models has been introduced in the literature and shown to be more accurate than the … no-change forecast of the real price of oil. We investigate the merits of constructing real-time forecast combinations of …

forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news …-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … to understand historical fluctuations in the real price of oil, but to construct conditional forecasts that reflect …

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model … in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil …

It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well … of an asymmetric transmission of oil price innovations. Moreover, many of the papers quantifying these asymmetric … responses are based on censored oil price VAR models which recently have been shown to be invalid. Other studies are based on …

The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast …, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. An … lost by ignoring high-frequency financial data in forecasting the monthly real price of oil. …