In this paper, we study the co-movement of the government budget balance and the trade balance at business cycle frequencies. In a sample of 10 OECD countries we find that the correlation of the two time series is negative, but less so in more open economies. Moreover, for the US the...

The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison (2003) to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave...

This paper studies the effectiveness of Euro Area (EA) fiscal policy, during the recent financial crisis, using an estimated New Keynesian model with a bank. A key dimension of policy in the crisis was massive government support for banks—that dimension has so far received little attention in...

This paper takes a systematic look at the portfolio choice problem faced by investment banks or funds investing in transition economies. We relate the performance of projects in the transition economies to the broader macroeconomic and international environment, which affect the project through...

This 2003 Institute for Fiscal Studies Lecture addresses two sets of issues relevant to current and prospective future E(M)U members: the consequences of the Stability and Growth Pact for fiscal-financial sustainability and macroeconomic stability, and some risks associated with operational...

This paper argues that economic structure is a robust determinant of the OECD business cycle. Countries that share similar manufacturing sectors are shown to display more synchronized business cycles. Interestingly, the well-established rule of trade impacting on rich countries' business cycles...

This paper establishes the ability of a Real Business Cycle model to account for real exchange rate (RXR) behaviour, using UK experience as empirical focus. We show that a productivity burst simulation is capable of explaining the appreciation of RXR and its cyclical pattern observed in the...

The paper gives a brief account of the Swedish experience of an inflation target in a floating exchange rate regime; identifies, documents and discusses the current problems in Swedish monetary policy and their origins; suggests what can be done to remedy the problems; and draws some general...

Analysis of the design of institutions to counteract failures of monetary commitment has largely proceeded in a vacuum. It has ignored similar commitment problems in fiscal policy and in structural adjustment; and it has ignored coordination problems between monetary and fiscal policy. Optimal...