We propose regression based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The...

We analyse order placement strategies in a limit order market, using data on the order flow from the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Traders submitting market or limit orders trade off the order price against both the execution probability and the winner’s curse risk associated with different order...

This paper considers the evidence for volatility clustering and transmission in six bilateral Deutsche mark ERM exchange rates. Data on daily exchange rate changes are described by a mixture of two normal distributions. One of these contains observations of volatile exchange rate changes while...

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions from the economic effects of party control of government to...

We quantify the sources of risk in currency returns as a first step toward understanding the returns reported for the carry trade. To do this, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian...

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis...

In this paper we use data on five social inclusion indicators (poverty, inequality, unemployment, education and health) to assess and compare the performance of 27 European welfare states (EU27) in 2008. Aggregate measures of performance are obtained using index number methods similar to those...

In the second half of the 1990s Switzerland introduced an ambitious active labour market policy (ALMP) encompassing a variety of programmes. We evaluate the effects of these programmes on individual employment probability using unusually informative data originating from administrative records....

Transferring low tech manufacturing jobs to cheap labour countries is often seen by part of the general public and policy makers as a step into the de-industrialisation of the European economies. However, several recent contributions have shown that the effects on home economies are rarely...