Showing 1 - 10 of 47
between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting … different econometric methodology. Rather than inferring demand shocks from an econometric model, we utilize a direct measure of … global demand shocks based on revisions of professional real GDP growth forecasts. We show that recent forecast surprises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666885
A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of energy price shocks are misspecified, resulting in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000442
evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including … to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of … find that this surge was caused by fluctuations in the flow demand for oil driven by the global business cycle. There is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530341
One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016247
much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759
hypothetical scenarios about future demand and supply conditions in the market for crude oil. These tools are designed to allow …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493559
price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643504
It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of asymmetries, however, has not directly tested the hypothesis of an asymmetric transmission of oil price innovations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784725
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Since...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114377
The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083339