. We decompose the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility ("uncertainty … monetary policy decreases risk aversion after about five months. Monetary authorities react to periods of high uncertainty by … through which monetary policy may affect risk aversion, e.g., through its effects on broad liquidity measures and credit. …

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank … with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of … outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

This paper develops a theory characterizing the effects of fiscal policy on unemployment over the business cycle. The … theory is based on a model of equilibrium unemployment in which jobs are rationed in recessions. Fiscal policy in the form of …