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We investigate the relation between global foreign exchange (FX) volatility risk and the cross-section of excess … FX volatility and thus deliver low returns in times of unexpected high volatility, when low interest rate currencies … provide a hedge by yielding positive returns. Our proxy for global FX volatility risk captures more than 90% of the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008867494
Using a portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination, this paper develops a theoretical explanation of why central banks do not make precise announcements of their exchange rate targets. In foreign exchange markets, where it is common knowledge that the central bank intervenes to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661690
gain learning may contribute towards explaining the stock price and return volatility as well as the predictability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789201
that this ‘insurance’ – referred to as the Greenspan put – is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067591
information is incorporated into prices and volatility increases. Public information, in such environments, has the important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009144734
and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661886
We present a decision theoretic framework with agents that are learning about the behavior of market determined variables. Agents are 'internally rational', i.e., maximize discounted expected utility under uncertainty given consistent beliefs about the future, but may not be 'externally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577809
We discuss the extent to which the expectation of a rare event, not present in the usual post-war sample data, but not rationally excludable from the set of possibilities – the peso problem – can affect the behaviour of rational agents and the characteristics of market equilibrium. To that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124369
applications of our theory. We first show that predictions of our model provide a novel theoretical justification and are … theory of debt versus equity. Third, we provide conditions under which permanent over- or under-pricing of assets is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083236
New evidence suggests that individuals "learn from experience," meaning they learn from events occurring during their own lifetimes as opposed to the entire history of events. Moreover, they weigh more heavily the more recent events compared to events occurring in the more distant past. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083418