We develop a method to estimate which side will win a civil war. The key insight we deliver is that, for typical sovereign debt contracts, the probability of debt repayment will equal the probability of victory in a civil war. We test our predictor for standard outcomes in civil wars, including...

This paper examines the implications of bank activity and short-term funding strategies for bank risk and return using an international sample of 1334 banks in 101 countries leading up to the 2007 financial crisis. Expansion into non-interest income generating activities such as trading...

This paper offers a critical survey of the literature on the role of financial deepening in economic development, focusing on the role of government. Specifically, I distinguish between the policy view that relates financial sector development to an array of necessary policies and institutions,...

During the 1930s, rating agencies took up a central role in regulatory supervision that they still have today. We study the process through which they received this regulatory license. The proximate cause for this changeover was the economic shock of the Great Depression. Exploring the...

European economic growth in the quarter of a century that ended in 1973 outstripped growth in any period of comparable length before or since. The elements of Europe's growth miracle -- wage moderation, high investment and rapid export growth -- were delivered by a tailor-made set of domestic...

France's post-war growth has gone through four phases. The strong growth performance of the 1950s was helped by a phenomenon of catch-up on best foreign practices, and by a positive effect of capital rejuvenation. Yet the best performance was to follow and covered a period beginning around 1958...

The high level of trade and financial integration reached by Europe both today and under the late 19th century gold standard suggests that important lessons can be learned by looking at past record to inform current issues. In this article, we draw a fresh picture of the European gold standard,...

This paper examines the innovative history of a number of UK firms using two large databases, looking for evidence consistent with the view that firms who innovate typically do so persistently. The first sample contains 3,304 firms who registered at least one patent in the United States during...