Showing 1 - 10 of 53
U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation … evidence that corn ethanol mandates have created a tight link between oil and agricultural markets. Rather increases in food … little to U.S. retail food price increases, because of the small cost share of agricultural products in food prices. There is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084483
This paper documents a decreasing trend in the geographical concentration of EU agro-food imports. Decomposing the … their agri-food products from a wider range of suppliers), while geographical concentration increases at the intensive … food alerts at the EU border that had never been exploited before. After coding it into HS8 categories, we regress the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005014570
One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016247
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759
We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493559
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643504
Recently developed structural models of the global crude oil market imply that the surge in the real price of oil between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting unexpectedly high growth mainly in emerging Asia. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666885
A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of energy price shocks are misspecified, resulting in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000442
It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of asymmetries, however, has not directly tested the hypothesis of an asymmetric transmission of oil price innovations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784725
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Since...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114377