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The purpose in this letter is first to review briefly the empirical results on the relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates; this empirical literature provides little support for the hypothesis of Roll that expected real interest rates are equal in general. Our second aim...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124145
This paper presents an empirical examination of the importance of hysteresis in international trade. An econometric model of export determination is developed where the presence of sunk costs causes discontinuous behaviour and hysteresis so that an individual exporter’s decision to stay in or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497929
A sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass-through to disaggregated import prices but very few micro-studies focus on consumer prices. This paper explores exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in South Africa during 2002-2007, using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084277
In this paper we develop a multivariate threshold vector error correction model of spot and forward exchange rates that allows for different forms of equilibrium reversion in each of the cointegrating residual series. By introducing the notion of an indicator matrix to differentiate between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666602
This paper shows how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow … motivate our investigation, we document the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by a … sample of four emerging small open economies: Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil. We postulate a stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666783
We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities, the slope coefficient is positive, but it turns negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468651
This Paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime-switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114365
, and volatility risks, its performance presents a challenge to asset pricing models. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673
We investigate the predictive information content in foreign exchange volatility risk premia for exchange rate returns …. The volatility risk premium is the difference between realized volatility and a model-free measure of expected volatility … that is derived from currency options, and reflects the cost of insurance against volatility ‡fluctuations in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084715
This Paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-US dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through to March 1999. Using options data, we derive implied probability density...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656384