Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial level coefficient is interpreted as convergence. These tests turn out to be plagued by Francis Galton's classical fallacy of regression towards the mean. Using a dynamic...

In this paper I review the contribution of real business cycles models to our understanding of economic fluctuations, and discuss open issues in business cycle research.

The objective of this paper is to provide, in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model, an answer to the following five questions: 1) To what extent does an economy subject to regular variations in labour productivity growth differ from one where labour productivity is constant? 2)...

This paper considers the ultimate causes of post-war UK business cycles. Using an extended stochastic growth model we construct estimates of a productivity and preference shock both of which are highly persistent, volatile and potentially capable of explaining UK business cycles. We find the...

A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock: When the monetary policy shock takes place...

This paper focuses on one possible explanation for the empirical evidence of: (a) income convergence among the world’s poorest countries and among its wealthiest countries; and (b) income divergence among most of the remaining countries. The model incorporates the assumption of subsistence...

Understanding the features and the determinants of individual price setting behaviour is important for the formulation of monetary policy. These behavioural mechanisms play a fundamental role in influencing the characteristics of aggregate inflation and in determining how monetary policy affects...

We study the politics of intergenerational redistribution in an overlapping-generations model with short-lived governments. The successive governments – who care about the welfare of the currently-living generations and possibly about campaign contributions – are unable to pre-commit the...

Society is characterized by the common attitudes and behaviour of its members. Such behaviour reflects purposive decision making by individuals, given the environment they live in. Thus, as technology changes, so might social norms. There were big changes in social norms during the 20th Century,...

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in...