Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 29
Cover Image
Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices
Bofinger, Peter; Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504428
Cover Image
Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the €/US$ Rate
Bofinger, Peter; Schmidt, Robert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666725
Cover Image
The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China
Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
This paper analyzes the consequences of the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. In an unstable and financially integrated world, governments’ precautionary demand for reserve assets is likely to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084193
Cover Image
The Rise and Fall of the Dollar, or When did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading Reserve Currency?
Eichengreen, Barry; Flandreau, Marc - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
We present new evidence on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves in the 1920s and 1930s. Contrary to the presumption that the pound sterling continued to dominate the U.S. dollar in central bank reserves until after World War II, we show that the dollar first overtook sterling in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661921
Cover Image
The Financial Crisis and the Geography of Wealth Transfers
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Rey, Hélène; Truempler, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper studies the geography of wealth transfers during the 2008 global financial crisis. We construct valuation changes on bilateral external positions in equity, direct investment and portfolio debt at the height of the crisis to map who benefited and who lost on their external exposure....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293659
Cover Image
Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories
Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
crude oil inventories affects the empirical evidence for speculation. Notwithstanding some differences, overall these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083911
Cover Image
Speculation in the Oil Market
Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient … demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008, and its subsequent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084143
Cover Image
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
Fattouh, Bassam; Kilian, Lutz; Mahadeva, Lavan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major … empirical methodologies and discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the … existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084244
Cover Image
Speculation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve
Barillas, Francisco; Nimark, Kristoffer P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
An affine asset pricing model in which agents have rational but heterogeneous expectations about future asset prices is developed. We estimate the model using data on bond yields and individual survey responses from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and perform a novel three-way...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084555
Cover Image
The Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
Bhattacharya, Utpal; Weller, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992
Using a portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination, this paper develops a theoretical explanation of why central banks do not make precise announcements of their exchange rate targets. In foreign exchange markets, where it is common knowledge that the central bank intervenes to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661690