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primarily from convergence in the volatility of state output growth, rather than in its average. The realized industry shares of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662195
This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666589
and volatility in contrast to the exogenously assumed constant mean and volatility in many credit risk models. We consider … attenuated (amplified) market volatility and risk premium, but the market value is always higher in economic downturns, and lower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788927
forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian … stochastic volatility innovations; and (ii) strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123849
volatility of state output growth, rather than in its average. The realized industry shares of output also converge faster to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504526
We economically motivate and then test a range of hypotheses regarding performance and risk differences between UCITS-compliant and other hedge funds. The latter exhibit more suspicious return patterns than do absolute return UCITS (ARUs), but ARUs exhibit higher levels of operational risk. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272713
We investigate whether acquiring more education when young has long-term effects on risk-taking behavior in financial markets and whether the effects spill over to spouses and children. There is substantial evidence that more educated people are more likely to invest in the stock market....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011249373
without giving rise to high year-on-year volatility in consumption streams or opaque and rigid valuation and smoothing rules …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252616
International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country’s net foreign asset position through the “valuation channel” of external adjustment, namely capital gains and losses on the country’s external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011266533
The dangers of shouting ``fire'' in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082543