forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have … increased, we find that, as of September 2002, with the exception of Japan, there is no evidence of substantial deflation risks …. We also put the estimates of deflation risk for the United States, Germany and Japan into historical perspective. We find …

The paper studies an idealized gold standard in a two-country setting. Unless national policies for domestic credit … expansion (dce) are flexible enough to offset the effect of money demand shocks on international gold reserves, the gold … respond to these shocks, the public debt is likely to rise (or fall) to unsustainable levels. The idealized gold standard …

economy and escape deflation by a real depreciation of the domestic currency, a lower long real interest rate, and increased …

central bank to meet is inflation target. The threat of deflation and a liquidity trap is examined. Transparent inflation …

occurs when unwanted deflation needs to be prevented or combated, but the central bank’s conventional monetary arsenal is …

After an absence of almost half a century, the spectre of deflation is once again haunting the corridors of central … banks and finance ministries in the industrial world. While preventing or combating deflation poses some unique difficulties … not present in preventing or combating inflation, deflation can be prevented and, if it has taken hold, can be overcome …

should be common or that a policy close to the Friedman rule and thus some deflation is optimal. Finally, a formal ‘baby …