In this Paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth … real time context, for several forecast horizons, and using both recursive and rolling estimation. We also analyse three …

detrending filters. The resulting ensemble produces well-calibrated forecast densities for US inflation in real time, in contrast … autoregessions in inflation and output gap measures. Density combination utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to produce …

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator … prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information … criterion, commonly used in VARs to select lag length, with a ‘parsimonious longer lags’ (PLL) parameterisation. Forecast …

-type-shock" models to correctly forecast the recovery from past economic downturns. It is shown that these models often overestimate the …

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and … historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts … particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast …