reveal that higher margins have a much stronger negative relation to subsequent volatility in bull markets than in bear …

forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian … stochastic volatility innovations; and (ii) strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random …

Cross-country evidence is presented on resource dependence and the link between volatility and growth. First, growth … depends negatively on volatility of unanticipated output growth independent of initial income per capita, the average … growth. Second, the adverse effect of resources on growth operates primarily through higher volatility. The positive effect …

new panel database for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change on … country performance between 1870 and 1939. Volatility was much more important for accumulation and growth than was secular …

commensurate with their risk aversion; more risk-averse individuals pick lower-volatility stocks. The investors' portfolio … consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis: the portfolios contain highly similar stocks in terms of volatility, when …

.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive … and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the …

We study the effect of introducing a new security, such as a non-redundant derivative, on the volatility of stock … increases the volatility of stock-market returns. …

economies growth rates tend to be relatively stable. To explain this pattern, we propose a theory of technological … lower the volatility of output growth. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit incentives. The … decline in volatility thus arises as a by-product of firms' incentives to increase profits and is hence a likely outcome of …

misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar … more ‘extractive’ institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises … appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises. This suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more …