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Predicting Winners in Civil Wars
Haber, Stephen H; Mitchener, Kris; Oosterlinck, Kim; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
We develop a method to estimate which side will win a civil war. The key insight we deliver is that, for typical sovereign debt contracts, the probability of debt repayment will equal the probability of victory in a civil war. We test our predictor for standard outcomes in civil wars, including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083912
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The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding
Desmet, Klaus; Nagy, David Krisztián; Rossi-Hansberg, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
different levels of migration frictions. We bring the model to the data for the whole world economy at a 1º times 1º geographic … regions in the world. We then use the model to study the effect of a spatial shock. We focus on the example of a rise in the … of the world economy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252617
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What Do We Know about Microfinance at Macro Glance?
Alimukhamedova, Nargiza; Hanousek, Jan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
The majority of microfinance impact studies focus on finding their effect on a specific group of beneficiaries, in contrast we aim to identify the impact on whole economies (economic growth, and financial sector development and reductions in income inequalities), which is an important policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201355
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Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, and Global Imbalances
Alfaro, Laura; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Volosovych, Vadym - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
The paper presents new stylized facts on the direction of capital flows. We find (i) international capital flows net of government debt and/or official aid are positively correlated with growth; (ii) sovereign debt flows are negatively correlated with growth only if debt is financed by another...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364326
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The World Distribution of Productivity: Country TFP Choice in a Nelson-Phelps Economy
Färnstrand Damsgaard, Erika; Krusell, Per - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
general equilibrium model of the world which has externalities: each country invests in TFP and internalizes the dynamic … effects of its own investment, while treating other countries' investments as given. Average world growth is endogenous, as is …-run differences in TFP levels and that, in the long run, the world distribution of TFP across countries may be asymmetric, i.e., twin …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642880
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Before the Great Divergence? Comparing the Yangzi Delta and the Netherlands at the Beginning of the Nineteenth Century
Li, Bozhong; Zanden, Jan Luiten Van - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
The debate about the long-term economic development of China compared with Europe has taken a new turn with the publication of Kenneth Pomeranz’ book on ‘The Great Divergence’, in which he maintains that before the Industrial Revolution the most advanced parts of China (in particular the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008677242
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Economic Effects of the Abolition of Serfdom: Evidence from the Russian Empire
Markevich, Andrei; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
We document a very large increase in agricultural productivity, peasants’ living standards, and industrial development in the 19th century Imperial Russia as a result of the abolition of serfdom. We construct a novel province-level panel dataset of development outcomes and conduct a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165638
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Mobile Phone Coverage and Producer Markets: Evidence from West Africa
Aker, Jenny; Fafchamps, Marcel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
Expansion in mobile phone coverage has improved access to information throughout the developing world, particularly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083580
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Trade liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters
Khandelwal, Amit; Schott, Peter K.; Wei, Shang-Jin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
If trade barriers are managed by inefficient institutions, trade liberalization can lead to greater-than-expected gains. We examine Chinese textile and clothing exports before and after the removal of externally imposed quotas. Both the surge in export volumes and the decline in prices after the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083645
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Rainfall Risk and Religious Membership in the Late Nineteenth-Century United States
Ager, Philipp; Ciccone, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
Building on the idea that religious communities provide mutual insurance against some idiosyncratic risks, we argue that religious membership is more valuable in societies exposed to greater common risk. In our empirical analysis we exploit rainfall risk as a source of common economic risk in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083704