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Mismeasuring Long Run Growth. The Bias from Spliced National Accounts

Prados de la Escosura, Leandro - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

accounts and historical estimates are spliced. To allow for changes in relative prices, GDP benchmark years in national … accounts are periodically replaced with new and more recent ones. Thus, a homogeneous long-run GDP series requires linking … GDP levels and growth, particularly as an economy undergoes deep structural transformation. An inadequate splicing may …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084295

The Rise and Fall of Spain (1270-1850)

Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos; Prados de la Escosura, Leandro - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

Two distinctive regimes are distinguished in Spain over half-a-millennium. A first one (1270s-1590s) corresponds to a high land-labour ratio frontier economy, pastoral, trade-oriented, and led by towns. Wages and food consumption were relatively high. Sustained per capita growth occurred from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009001065

Long-run patterns in market efficiency and the genesis of the market economy: Markets around the Mediterranean from Nebuchadnezzar to Napoleon (580 BC and 1800AD)

Földvári, Péter; van Leeuwen, Bas; Zanden, Jan Luiten Van - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

Price volatility, reflecting the ability to absorb exogenous supply- or demand shocks, is an important dimension of market performance. In this paper we present a model to study the factors determining the price volatility of markets of basic foodstuffs in pre industrial societies. This model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009246614

Spain's International Position, 1850-1913

Prados de la Escosura, Leandro - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Spain's financial position during the late 19th and early 20th century has usually been presented as one of persistent deficit on current account, which resulted from her integration into international commodity and factor markets and this, in turn, slowed down growth. In this essay a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458296

On the Origins of Border Effects: Insights from the Habsburg Customs Union

Schulze, Max Stephan; Wolf, Nikolaus - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

This paper examines the emergence and dynamics of border effects over time. We exploit the unique historical setting of the multinational Habsburg Empire prior to the Great War to explore the hypothesis that border effects emerged as a result of persistent trade effects of ethno-linguistic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662322

Was Germany Ever United? Evidence from Intra- and International Trade, 1885 -1933

Wolf, Nikolaus - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

This paper asks whether Germany was ever an economically integrated area. I explore the geography of trade costs in a new data set of about 40,000 observations on regional trade flows within and across the borders of Germany over the period 1885 – 1933. There are three key results. First, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666571

Stock Markets and Business Cycle Comovement in Germany Before World War I: Evidence from Spectral Analysis

Ritschl, Albrecht; Uebele, Martin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

This paper examines the comovement of the stock market and of real activity in Germany before World War I under the efficient market hypothesis. We employ multivariate spectral analysis to compare rivaling national product estimates to stock market behaviour in the frequency domain. Close...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666693

Quantifying Quantitative Literacy: Age Heaping and the History of Human Capital

A'Hearn, Brian; Baten, Jörg; Crayen, Dorothee - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Age data frequently display excess frequencies at attractive numbers, such as multiples of five. We use this "age heaping" to measure cognitive ability in quantitative reasoning, or "numeracy". We construct a database of age heaping estimates with exceptional geographic and temporal coverage,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791567

Endogenous Borders? Exploring a Natural Experiment on Border Effects

Heinemeyer, Hans Christian; Schulze, Max Stephan; Wolf, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

A large literature documents the impact of borders on trade. However, in all these studies border effects are identified from cross-sectional variation alone. We do not know the "treatment effect" of borders nor can we rule out reverse causation. Here, we exploit the border changes imposed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791730

Estimates of Real Economic Activity in Switzerland, 1885-1930

Gerlach, Stefan; Gerlach-Kristen, Petra - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

This Paper uses annual data spanning 1870 to 1930 on a set of variables correlated with business conditions to construct an index of real economic activity in Switzerland. We extract an estimate of the common component of the data series using principal components analysis and the unobservable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792078