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Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy
Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance of the financial system and its episodic crises as drivers of macroeconomic outcomes has attracted fresh scrutiny from academics, policy makers, and practitioners. Theoretical advances are following a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213304
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Betting the House
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145419
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Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008
Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
The crisis of the advanced economies in 2008-09 has focused new attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636377
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The Return of the Long-Run Phillips Curve
Graham, Liam; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
inflation and a permanent reduction in the level of unemployment. In short, we derive a microfounded long-run downward …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791529
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The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy
Gordon, Robert J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
This paper estimates the NAIRU (standing for the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) as a parameter that … varies over time. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate that is consistent with a constant rate of inflation. Its value is … determined in an econometric model in which the inflation rate depends on its own past values (‘inertia’), demand shocks proxied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123935
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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
at containing inflation and the deviation of output from potential within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools … this loss function under weak assumptions may be estimated from realizations for inflation and output gap data even in the … parameters with respect to the inflation and output objectives during the Greenspan period. We formally test for and reject the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791846
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The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator
Neiss, Katharine; Nelson, Edward - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001
indicator and forecasting properties of the real interest rate gap for inflation, both in the model and in the data. Our results … suggest that the real interest rate gap has value as an inflation indicator, supporting the ‘neo-Wicksellian framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791944
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The Roles of Monetary Policy in the Process of Economic Reform in Eastern Europe
Bofinger, Peter - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990
inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123602
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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123620
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Monetary Misconceptions: New and Old Paradigmata and Other Sad Tales
Buiter, Willem H. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000
Several recent studies imply that the response of national saving to fiscal policy is non-monotonic. In this paper, we use two data sets to search for the circumstances in which such non-monotonic responses arise: one refers to a sample of OECD countries, as in previous studies, and one to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124252