We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated by a limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients...

This paper investigates the relationship between time variations in output and inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the US. There are changes in the structural coefficients and in the variance of the structural shocks. The policy rules in the 1970s and 1990s are similar as is the...

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

In this Paper we study identification in dynamic factor models and argue that factor models are better suited than VARs to provide a structural representation of the macroeconomy. Factor models distinguish measurement errors and other idiosyncratic disturbances from structural macroeconomic...

This paper uses a structural time-series analysis to analyse the properties of ex-ante real interest rates of the five major OECD economies in relation to temporary and permanent shocks to real output. Following Blanchard and Quah (1989) we refer to these innovations as ‘nominal’ and...

Equilibrium business cycle models have typically less shocks than variables. As pointed out by Altug, 1989, and Sargent, 1989, if variables are measured with error, this characteristic implies that the model solution for measured variables has a factor structure. This Paper compares estimation...

There is a fast growing literature that partially identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To date, the methods that have been used are...

We introduce noisy information into a standard present value stock price model. Agents receive a noisy signal about the structural shock driving future dividend variations. The resulting equilibrium stock price includes a transitory component — the "noise bubble" — which can be responsible...

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labour productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional...

We analyze the effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks on hours and output. Long cycles in hours are captured in a variety of ways. Hours robustly fall in response to neutral shocks and robustly increase in response to investment specific shocks. The percentage of the...