generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise … in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based on U.S. time series and on an international panel strongly … supports these predictions. The empirical specifications featuring the variance of productivity growth can account for two U …

This paper documents a decreasing trend in the geographical concentration of EU agro-food imports. Decomposing the … their agri-food products from a wider range of suppliers), while geographical concentration increases at the intensive … food alerts at the EU border that had never been exploited before. After coding it into HS8 categories, we regress the …

productivity shocks. Our model is built on the financial accelerator approach of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (BGG), in which … leveraged goods-producers, subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks, borrow from a competitive financial sector. In the … present paper, by contrast, it is the financial institutions which are leveraged and subject to idiosyncratic productivity …

volatility of revenues, have failed to save a sufficiently high proportion of their resource revenues and failed to make high …

decentralized banking that produces exchange credit. Positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity, as … money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such … velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during …

reveal that higher margins have a much stronger negative relation to subsequent volatility in bull markets than in bear …

forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian … stochastic volatility innovations; and (ii) strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random …

Cross-country evidence is presented on resource dependence and the link between volatility and growth. First, growth … depends negatively on volatility of unanticipated output growth independent of initial income per capita, the average … growth. Second, the adverse effect of resources on growth operates primarily through higher volatility. The positive effect …