We explore how fiscal policies in the OECD have responded to unexpected information about the economy during the period 1995-2006. In particular, we first estimate standard fiscal rules using ex-ante data (i.e. forecasts). We then estimate how fiscal policy reacts to new information, especially...

In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine ‘rationality’ conditional on a given loss function. We examine this from a different perspective - supposing that we have a family of loss functions indexed by unknown shape parameters, then given the...

The development of the unemployment rate differs substantially between OECD countries. In recent years some countries have experienced a mild increase, other countries have had a stable unemployment rate, while there are also ‘successful’ countries in which the unemployment rate has...

This paper studies whether the dynamic behaviour of GNP growth, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and changes of government. The sample includes the last three decades in 18 OECD economies. We test explicitly the implications of several models of...

This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of three multilateral organizations intended to increase trade: 1) the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT); 2) the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and 3) the...

The development of the seven main OECD economies during the 1970s and 1980s is discussed. Subsequently, wage equations of the error-correction type for the seven largest OECD economies are estimated. The hypothesis of real wage rigidity cannot be rejected for the French, German, Italian and...

This paper presents historical indices for the main dimensions of economic freedom and an aggregate index for nowadays developed countries -(pre-1994) OECD, for short-. Economic liberty expanded over the last one-and-a-half centuries, reaching two thirds of its maximum possible. Its evolution...