This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles … of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the … market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output …

forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian … methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical exchange rate models, and construct combined forecasts based on … of the empirical models, and find two key results: (i) a risk averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch …

to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

both create and share the risk associated with exchange rate volatility. In such circumstances, monetary policy can be used … of noise traders alters the composition of the market and generates excess exchange rate volatility, since noise traders … to lower exchange rate volatility without altering macroeconomic fundamentals. …

commensurate with their risk aversion; more risk-averse individuals pick lower-volatility stocks. The investors' portfolio …The preferred risk habitat hypothesis, introduced here, is that individual investors select stocks with volatilities … consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis: the portfolios contain highly similar stocks in terms of volatility, when …

variable, such as those associated with different vintages of the Penn World Table (PWT). This paper revisits their theoretical …

Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking …