Similar Search Results

Haskel, Jonathan; Scaramozzino, Pasquale - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

This paper examines how firms interact with their rivals. The main novelty of our approach is that we let conjectural variations depend on the actual ability of other firms to react, which we measure by both the physical capacity and financial status of firms. Our main findings are threefold....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498024

The Political Economy of Deforestation in the Tropics

Burgess, Robin; Hansen, Matthew; Olken, Benjamin; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

Tropical deforestation accounts for almost one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and threatens the world's most diverse ecosystems. The prevalence of illegal forest extraction in the tropics suggests that understanding the incentives of local bureaucrats and politicians who enforce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084290

Efficiency Gains and Myopic Antitrust Authority in a Dynamic Merger Game

Motta, Massimo; Vasconcelos, Helder - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

This Paper models a sequential merger formation game with endogenous efficiency gains in which every merger has to be submitted for approval to the Antitrust Authority (AA). Two different types of AA are studied: first, a myopic AA, which judges a given merger without considering that subsequent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123600

Asia’s Evolving Role in Global Wine Markets

Anderson, Kym; Wittwer, Glyn - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

Over the past decade Hong Kong and China have become far more important to the world’s wine markets, while Southeast Asia’s imports of fine wine continue to grow steadily. This paper reviews recent developments in the light of comparative advantage theory before drawing on a model of global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011262888

Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods

Giacomini, Raffaella; Ragusa, Giuseppe - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

We propose a method for modifying a given density forecast in a way that incorporates the information contained in theory-based moment conditions. An example is "improving" the forecasts from atheoretical econometric models, such as factor models or Bayesian VARs, by ensuring that they satisfy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320402

Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759

Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

hypothetical scenarios about future demand and supply conditions in the market for crude oil. These tools are designed to allow …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493559

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643504

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?

Ferraro, Domenico; Rogoff, Kenneth; Rossi, Barbara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359490

Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size

Inoue, Atsushi; Rossi, Barbara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009275962

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last