able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, in this literature the natural unemployment rate is allowed to shift … over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many European unemployment series seem to exhibit a unit root or … persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the …

Long-term unemployment was regarded by contemporaries in the 1930's as a major problem but analysis of it has been … neglected in modern economists' research. This paper presents data on durations of unemployment and a measure of the welfare … costs associated with long-term unemployment. It is argued that only a small minority of the long-term unemployed had high …

factors such as the aggregate wage and the unemployment rate also play an important role. There is evidence for hysteresis …

hysteresis arises following large shocks to unemployment, but not following small changes. These results pose a challenge to …This paper is an empirical investigation of unemployment rate series in 17 countries. The timing and size of shifts in … the mean rate of unemployment are estimated. The size of the shifts and the remaining persistence in the unemployment rate …

the associated increase in unemployment. In the second part of the paper I examine the possibility that temporary … present I find evidence that is consistent with "hysteresis" effects on both the demand and supply side of the export market. …