much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …

The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast-based method of decomposing a variable such as output, into …

within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … forecast the risks of worldwide deflation for horizons of up to two years. Although recently fears of worldwide deflation have …

Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a … small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China’s FDI liabilities), these … “short equity, long debt.” Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the last decade although …

The Great Leap Forward (GLF) disaster, characterized by a collapse of grain output, and the associated famine in China …