This Paper proposes a new forecast combination method that lets the combination weights be driven by regime switching in a latent state variable. An empirical application that combines forecasts from survey data and time series models finds that the proposed regime switching combination scheme...

We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969-1999. Three popular methods of estimating uncertainty from survey data are analysed in the context of models for forecasting and asset pricing. We find that inflation uncertainty...

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has effects on the...

The paper compares the cyclical behaviour of the Greek economy to that of the other EC economies, using quarterly and annual data since 1960 and the Real Business Cycle model as a theoretical framework. The evidence suggests that there are remarkable similarities in these features despite...

In the second half of the 1990s Switzerland introduced an ambitious active labour market policy (ALMP) encompassing a variety of programmes. We evaluate the effects of these programmes on individual employment probability using unusually informative data originating from administrative records....

Since interventions by the public sector generally commit substantial societal resources, the evaluation of effects and costs of policy interventions is imperative. This Paper outlines why programme evaluation should follow well respected scientific standards and why it should be performed by...

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the accession countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of...