Similar Search Results

Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching

Elliott, Graham; Timmermann, Allan G - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

This Paper proposes a new forecast combination method that lets the combination weights be driven by regime switching in a latent state variable. An empirical application that combines forecasts from survey data and time series models finds that the proposed regime switching combination scheme...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662283

Inflation Forecast Uncertainty

Söderlind, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969-1999. Three popular methods of estimating uncertainty from survey data are analysed in the context of models for forecasting and asset pricing. We find that inflation uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789160

Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting

Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Schaling, Eric; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has effects on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791711

Heterogenous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules

Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Schaling, Eric; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

the latter affect the impact of monetary policy through the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates … OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114493

A Microeconometric Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policy in Switzerland

Gerfin, Michael; Lechner, Michael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

In the second half of the 1990s Switzerland introduced an ambitious active labour market policy (ALMP) encompassing a variety of programmes. We evaluate the effects of these programmes on individual employment probability using unusually informative data originating from administrative records....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666683

Knowing What Works. The Case for Rigorous Programme Evaluation

Schmidt, Christoph M - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

Since interventions by the public sector generally commit substantial societal resources, the evaluation of effects and costs of policy interventions is imperative. This Paper outlines why programme evaluation should follow well respected scientific standards and why it should be performed by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788972

Characterizing the Business Cycle for Accession Countries

Artis, Michael J; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Proietti, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the accession countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791470

Empirical Labour Search: A Survey

Eckstein, Zvi; den Berg, Gerard J van - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

This Paper surveys the existing empirical research that uses search theory to analyse empirically labour supply … dynamic optimization theory. We develop a general framework for the labour market where the search for a job involves dynamic … models. We discuss estimation, policy evaluation with the estimated model, equilibrium model versions, and the decomposition …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792322

Fiscal Policy and the Current Account

Ali Abbas, S.M.; Bouhga-Hagbe, Jacques; Fatás, Antonio; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and the current account, drawing on a larger country sample than in previous studies and using panel regressions, vector auto-regressions, and an analysis of large fiscal and external adjustments. On average, a strengthening in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468562

Comparisons of Business Cycles in Greece and the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities

Christodoulakis, Nikos; Dimelis, Sophia; Kollintzas, Tryphon - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993

The paper compares the cyclical behaviour of the Greek economy to that of the other EC economies, using quarterly and annual data since 1960 and the Real Business Cycle model as a theoretical framework. The evidence suggests that there are remarkable similarities in these features despite...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last