very effective in forecasting; d. within no-arbitrage models, assuming time-varying risk price is more favourable than … assuming constant risk price for medium horizon-maturity forecast when yield factors dominate the information set, and for …

intertemporal CAPM with the market portfolio as the only factor, size and book-to-market play separate roles in describing the cross …-section of stock returns is not necessarily inconsistent with a single-factor conditional CAPM model. …

advantage theory before drawing on a model of global wine markets to project developments in Asia and elsewhere over the next …

theory-based moment conditions. An example is "improving" the forecasts from atheoretical econometric models, such as factor … realistic situation in which economic theory does not specify a likelihood for the variables of interest, and thus cannot be …

Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price … oil supply conditions. Such scenario analysis is of central importance for end-users of oil price forecasts interested in … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …

forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news …-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … to understand historical fluctuations in the real price of oil, but to construct conditional forecasts that reflect …

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model … in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil …