Similar Search Results

Effective Protection and Investment Incentives in Egypt and Jordan During the Transition to Free Trade with Europe

Djankov, Simeon; Hoekman, Bernard - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996

This paper assesses the possible impact of a Euro-Mediterranean Agreement (EMA) on Egypt and Jordan and identifies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791725

Faini, Riccardo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

home thanks to a relatively larger flow of remittances. Skilled migrants typically earn relatively more and, ceteris … flow of remittances from skilled migrants. Hence, the sign of the impact of the brain drain on total remittances is an … home out of a given flow of earnings abroad. We then derive an empirical equation of remittances and estimate it on a large …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114298

A Global View of Cross-Border Migration

di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ortega, Francesc - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

difference, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of … flows -- such as Jamaica or El Salvador -- are also better off due to migration, but for a different reason: remittances … about 10% in countries with large incoming remittances. Our results are robust to accounting for imperfect transferability …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083627

Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries

Manzocchi, Stefano; Martin, Philippe - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996

We identify the determinants of capital movements in an ‘augmented-Solow’ model where capital mobility is restricted to a subset of capital assets. We then test the prediction of the neoclassical model and find that it is consistent with the evidence on net capital flows in a cross-section...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661577

Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation

Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016247

Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759

Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493559

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643504

Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?

Hicks, Bruce; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Recently developed structural models of the global crude oil market imply that the surge in the real price of oil between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting unexpectedly high growth mainly in emerging Asia. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666885

Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of energy price shocks are misspecified, resulting in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000442