-finance model, we test the hypothesis that the bond yield conundrum is connected to various sources of uncertainty in the financial …

We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow …

compare these optimal rules against plausible alternatives. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the … rules are robust to model uncertainty may be an overly sanguine conclusion. …

. We decompose the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility ("uncertainty … monetary policy decreases risk aversion after about five months. Monetary authorities react to periods of high uncertainty by … through which monetary policy may affect risk aversion, e.g., through its effects on broad liquidity measures and credit. …

and uncertainty play a central role. At the heart of our story is a Federal Reserve that learns and then disregards the … improves our ability to explain the Great Inflation with a learning model. Bayesian MCMC estimation results are encouraging and … favour a model where policy reacts to uncertainty over a model where uncertainty is ignored. The posterior likelihood is …

Motivated by policy statements of central bankers, we propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims … of risk management that may be used to quantify the risks of failing to attain that objective. Risk measures inherently … assumption of quadratic symmetric preferences, while being congruent with a risk management model. We show how the parameters of …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may be used to quantify and forecast the risks … of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the use of these risk measures in practice. First, we show how to …

between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the Gilboa-Schmeidler maxmin with multiple priors framework to lenders …, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood … include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real …